Gallup Nordic and Novus are now entering the Norwegian market and are the first in Norway to conduct a voter poll for the parliamentary election (Storting election) using the digital mailbox service, Digipost.

The accuracy of the poll results was very high, with an average margin of error of approximately 1 percentage point. The voter poll by Gallup Nordic and Novus came closer to the actual election result than most of the established Norwegian polling firms. It was also the only poll that did not underestimate Fremskrittspartiet.

The Survey was distributed via Digipost in Norway

More than 3.5 million of Norway’s 5.6 million inhabitants use the digital mailbox service Digipost. A survey distributed via electronic mail reaches a wide audience and therefore provides broad representation of the population.

Using scientifically proven methods is crucial for achieving credible results. High accuracy can sometimes be as much a result of chance as of skill, depending on the timing of the poll. The results of a voter opinion survey can change if an event occurs close to election day, says Torbjörn Sjöström, Chairman of Gallup Nordic.

• It’s always a bit nerve-wracking to release a voter poll when the polling industry is under close scrutiny by the media. The media’s judgment can be harsh even if results fall within the margin of error. Releasing a brand-new method with a short data collection period during an election with significant voter shifts right up to election day only adds to the tension. The fact that we were able to demonstrate the success of our new method, and that we did not underestimate the Progress Party like other polls did, came as a huge relief.
• Our method testing ahead of the launch indicated that the method should yield solid results, and it was based on established science. However, the true outcome cannot be confirmed until the polls close and the last votes are counted, says Torbjörn Sjöström.

Methodological choices are key to reflecting reality

What stood out among the Norwegian voter polls was that all surveys conducted ahead of the Storting election used scientifically validated methods. Random sampling is essential, meaning that panels with self-recruited participants fail to reflect a true picture of the public voice.

Gallup Nordic and Novus are world leaders in methodological development and in conducting evidently reliable surveys. We are proud to have been the first to conduct a voter poll via Kivra in Sweden, and now via Digipost in Norway.

The Gallup method is the only scientifically reliable survey method in Sweden, continuously evolving its data collection processes to keep up with changing human behavior. This evolution has taken place continuously since the method revolutionized the knowledge industry in the 1930s – from rom in-person interviews to mail, telephone, mobile, and now digital mailboxes or high-quality, randomly recruited panels.

Digital mailboxes and Novus’s randomly recruited panel are excellent complements, providing facts through multiple scientifically tested methods. SMS also plays a role in the future of Gallup surveys.

About the survey

Gallup Nordic (majority owner of Novus), together with Novus, published a voter poll in Norway on the morning of Saturday, September 6, on TV4.

The purpose of the voter poll was to provide a snapshot of public opinion ahead of the Storting election on September 8. This means it was not a forecast or prediction accounting for potential events or political statements that could shift the outcome before election day.

Unlike in Sweden, early votes cannot be changed in Norway. In this Storting election, nearly every second voter had already voted in advance, which reduces the impact a final debate might have on the election outcome. A changed vote therefore does not have the same effect on the final result.

Gallup Nordic and Novus chose to publish a voter poll during this Norwegian election to highlight the launch of a new method — conducting a public opinion survey via Digipost for the first time in Norwegian history. This also allowed for a comparison with Sweden’s equivalent service, the digital mailbox Kivra.

Gallup Nordic’s average error was 1.05 percentage points. The survey correctly predicted, among other things, that the Liberal Party (Venstre) would not surpass the 4% electoral threshold, and it closely estimated the result for the Progress Party (FrP) — something other voter polls significantly underestimated.

Survey Details
Number of interviews: 1,080
Data collection method: Electronic mail (Digipost)
Data collection date: September 4, 2025
Publication date: September 5, 2025

About Gallup Nordic

Gallup Nordic, a business unit of the Swedish Gallup Institute, conducts surveys primarily in the Nordic region. Gallup Nordic is Sweden’s member of Gallup International, the majority owner of Novus, and the oldest polling company in Sweden, established in 1947.

Novus conducts the surveys on behalf of Gallup Nordic and also operates globally, conducting research in over 50 countries annually. Torbjörn Sjöström is the Chairman of the Board.