Christoph Hofinger – Being a hedgehog or a fox

This week’s episode of Sanity Check highlights the election results in Austria, where the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) received the most votes, drawing significant attention. Christoph Hofinger, pollster and forecaster, best known from Austrian TV election night coverage, where he presents election forecasts. head of the Austrian FORESIGHT institute and former president of the European Association of Political Consultants (EAPC), shares his insights into voter behavior and current political trends, including the role of inflation, dissatisfaction with mandatory vaccinations during the pandemic, and the anger driving increased support for populist parties like FPÖ.

The episode also explores the idea of “being a hedgehog or a fox” in political forecasting. The hedgehog focuses on a single core idea, which often leads to less flexible forecasts, while the fox adapts its approach by drawing on multiple ideas and theories for greater accuracy.

Christian Syse – Ukraine, national security and the global situation

Christian Syse has had a long political career and has previously served as Norway’s ambassador in Sweden. He is now the representative of Norway’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs in its relations with Ukraine. Is his role, he focuses on providing assistance and resources primarily to civilians.

This week’s episode discusses topics such as the war in Ukraine, national security, the global situation, the influence of the U.S and China, as well as Sweden’s NATO membership and its implications for the Nordic region. How do global tensions affect our region, and how can Sweden and Norway, as neighboring countries, collaborate to navigate through these challenges?

Jan Eliasson – Global prospects

This week’s episode of Novus Sanity Check features Jan Eliasson, former Sweden’s Minister for Foreign Affairs, and Deputy Secretary-General of the United Nations. The discussion covers the upcoming U.S. election and the importance of impartial news reporting and highlight the significance of creating space for dialogue between people with different political views in order to find solutions to various societal challenges.

Jan Eliasson also shares his thoughts on global prospects and structural optimism, focusing on: the complete liberation of women worldwide, the role of young people in shaping the future and the importance of listening to them, the crucial role of research and knowledge dissemination, and international cooperation as a path forward.

An inspiring episode on politics, society, and hope for the future!

Faye Diamond

Faye Diamond, with a long background in American politics, joins this week’s episode in a discussion about the U.S. election from a democratic perspective. Throughout her career, Faye Diamond has worked in both strategic communication and political consulting, including at the European Association of Political Consultants (EAPC). Her experience ranges from managing national campaigns to providing consultancy on election transparency and democracy-strengthening initiatives.

The episode covers topics such as transparency in political campaigns related to financial activities, the challenge of low voter turnout, and restrictive voting measures that make it harder for marginalized groups to vote in the election.

Participants: Faye Diamond and Torbjörn Sjöström

Bruce Stokes – Polarized voters and media: How does it affect the US election?

A discussion with Bruce Stokes, of the Pew Research Center on the U.S. election, focusing on how the country has reached its current state of polarized voters and divided media outlets. How did the U.S, arrive at this point, and what are the implications for the upcoming election?

Bruce Stokes is director of global economic attitudes at the Pew Research Center, a non-resident fellow at the German Marshall Fund and associate fellow at Chatham House.

Colin Irwin – Peace polls

Guest Dr. Colin Irwin in a discussion on peace surveys and global research. Colin Irwin received a Lifetime Achievement Award from the World Association of Public Opinion Research (WAPOR), in part for his work on peace surveys, which played a central role in the peace process in Northern Ireland. He has advised the UN’s Department of Peacekeeping Operations (DPKO) on their procedures and best practices. Irwin is also involved in OpenAI’s process of democratizing AI and has published this paper: Democratic Policy Development using Collective Dialogues and AI.

Irwin has lectured in the USA, the UK, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia, and has authored over 100 publications, including articles, essays, and books on these topics. He is currently a researcher at the Department of Politics at the University of Liverpool. He is developing a perception-based ‘People’s Peace Index’ to globalize and integrate his ‘peace polls’ methods into all peace processes, with research published on his website: peacepolls.org.

Michael Nitsche – Surveys and Gallup international

The guest on Sanity Check is Gallup International’s newly elected chairman, Michael Nitsche, who is also the owner of Gallup Austria.

Both Michael Nitsche and Torbjörn Sjöström serve on Gallup International’s board, and in this episode, we hear about Gallup International’s role and history.